首都圈断层网络群体形变异常与地震预报

THE COLONY DEFORMATION ANOMALIES OF FAULT NETWORK IN CAPITAL CIRCLE AND THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICATION

本文根据系统科学的原理和方法,在总结过去地震的基础上,把唐山地惑前分布在首都圈周围的各活断层网络上各测点,视为一个整体蕴震信息系统。利用分布在各断层上8个测点13条短水准测线的16年全过程的月均值资料,对其速率变化的合成进行了探讨,以期求得大震前在其震源周围各活断层整体运动状态。研究结果表明:距震源中心200公里范围内的断层网络在16年的速率变化合成中,仅在唐山地震前出现唯一的一次异常。这一事实说明,在一个大震发生前,不但有震源性前兆,而且也存在着场源性前兆。

Based on the summary of past earthquakes, the measuring points in the active fault network round the capital circle before Tangshan earthquake are regarded as a total seismogenic information system from the principle and method of information theory.In order to obtain the total active state of faults around the source before earthquake,the synthesis of earthquake rate change is discussed using the monthly mean of sixteen years in thirteen short level lines on eight points.The result shows that only one anomaly before Tangshan earthquake occurred on synthesis of rate change for sixteen years in fault network at a range of 200 km far from source, and that there are the precursor of field source as well as earthquake source before earthquake.