自然限制性条件下天津市农村居民点整理潜力估算

Calculation of land consolidation potential fir rural habitat areas under natural limit condition in Tianjin city

在农村居民点用地适宜性评价的基础上，估算了天津市农村居民点在自然限制性条件下的整理潜力。测算结果表明，天津市各区县的自然限制性修正系数为0．393～0．954；在自然限制性条件下，天津市各区县农村居民点整理增加耕地系数2010年为4．83％～51．69％、2020年为10．95％～53．28％。天津市可净增加总耕地面积分别为25996．17、27677．99hm^2；在时序上，随着社会经济的发展和城市化水平的提高，天津市农村人口逐渐减少，整理潜力逐渐增大。在空间上，天津市北部、东南部整理增加耕地潜力较大，天津市东部、中西部整理增加耕地潜力较小。

Based on the land suitability evaluation of rural habitat areas, the land consolidation potential under natural limit in Tianjin city was evoluated. The calculating result shows that natural limit modificatory coefficients of the counties in Tianjin are from 0. 393 to 0. 954. The increasing cultivated coefficients of land consolidation of rural habitat areas are from 4.83% to 51.69% in 2010, and 10.95%～53.28% in 2020. The total cultivated land can be increased by 25996.17 hm^2 through land consolidation of rural habitat areas in 2010, and 27677.99 hm^2 in 2020. The development of society, economy and urbanization will lead to the decrease of agricultural population. And the potential will increase. In spatial situation, the potential is greater in north and southeast of Tianjin than that in the east and midwest of it.