破解宏观调控“达芬奇密码”

Cracking "The Da Vinci Code" of Macro-control

面对中国经济由偏快转向过热的风险,近期中国政府密集颁布的一系列新政,昭示着第二轮宏观调控已经来临。央行在不到两个月的时间内,陆续推出了贷款加息、定向发行央行票据、上调存款准备金率、存贷款加息等措施来收紧货币流动性;而从中央至地方的房地产调控路线图亦日益清晰,国家发改委对产能过剩行业的调控则步调渐急。在这种宏观经济政策背景下,下半年宏观调控的路径选择面临比较大的压力。本文将围绕宏观调控路径选择这一主题作一些初步的分析。

As the Chinese economy is getting increasingly hot, risks emerge accordingly. The Chinese government has promulgated a series of new policies recently, which will usher in an era of a second-round macro-control. The Central Bank of China has taken some measures on controlling the currency circulation in less than two months, including increasing the loan interest rate, directional issuance of bills of the Central Bank of China, elevating the deposit reserve rate and increasing the deposit and loan interest rates. The policies on regulating the real estates from the central government to the local ones are also becoming ever apparent. In addition, the regulation of the National Development and Reform Commission on the industries with overcapacity becomes gradually swifter. Under the circumstance of such macroeconomic policies, Chinese government's macro-control will be confronted with greater pressures in choosing the ways and means in the second half of this year. In this article, the author will make some preliminary analyses on the subject of choosing measures for macro-control.