国际天然铀价格走势分析

Forecasting on the international market price of uranium

核电是世界电力供应的重要组成部分,它将在解决世界能源短缺问题中发挥越来越重要的作用。天然铀是核电发展的物质基础,在世界铀资源勘查、开发和贸易体系中,天然铀价格是最活跃、最敏感、最关键的因素之一。天然铀价格受天然铀供需关系、生产成本,以及国际政治和经济形势等的影响。铀资源量及其品质、天然铀生产成本与产量等是天然铀价格的基本决定因素,而供需关系直接影响价格的变化。现在世界已探明的铀资源严重短缺,产量严重不足,供需矛盾突出,天然铀产品成本在核电发电成本中所占比例很小,存在很大的涨价空间。由于上述原因,天然铀价格近年增长幅度较大,而且在一个相当长的时期内将保持适当的涨幅。预计在未来15年间,铀价将会出现3个上涨期:目前至2010年为快速上涨期;2010～2015年为缓慢上涨期;2015～2020年为平稳过渡期;2020年后,天然铀价格会再次上扬。

Nuclear electricity is playing a more and more important role in the world electricity supplying. Uranium is the base of nuclear fuel for the nuclear plants. The price of U308 is one of the most important factors in the system of exploration, development and trading. The price is basically controlled by the factors of uranium supply-demand, the recoverable cost of U308 and some political influence. Due to the shortage of identified uranium resources, market supply, low production capability and low percentage of uranium in the total cost of nuclear power generation, the price of the U3O8 should keep a certain rising ratio for a considerable duration. It is forecasted that the price will rise very quickly by 2010, and rise step by step during the period of 2010-2015, and keep steady till 2020. While the low recoverable cost resources being used out, the price will rise gradually again after 2020.