西方学者关于股票市场泡沫研究的文献综述

A Review of Researches abroad on the Foam in the Stock Market

自20世纪80年代以来,有效市场理论不断面临着泡沫理论的挑战。经过20多年的探索,西方对市场非有效性的研究形成了两个分支领域:理性泡沫学派和行为金融学。虽然,行为金融学目前被认为是非有效市场研究的理论基石和主脉,但本文认为,针对泡沫的验证、度量与解释应为非有效市场理论的基层课题。只有建立起有力的泡沫理论、且获得充足的实证证据,非有效市场理论才能真正具有挑战有效市场理论的能力,从而为更深层次的市场主体行为的研究提供更加有力的理论支撑。因此本文对20多年来西方学者在泡沫领域的研究进行了全面的回顾,旨在为我国学术界发展泡沫研究提供理论与实证基础。

Twenty years of research on ineffective of marketing has resulted in two major subtheories, namely, the school of rational foam and behaviorist finance. The behaviorist finance is still considered the basic theoretical foundation of ineffective marketing. However, the author maintains that the primary research topics of ineffective marketing theory are justification, estimation and explanation of the foam. Only with the establishment of a well-grounded theory of foam with sufficient evidence can the ineffective marketing theory challenge the effective marketing theory, and in turn, lend theoretical support for researches on marketing behaviors.