湛江地区年降水量的时间序列分析

Time Series Analysis on Annual Rain-Fall of Zhanjiang

通过应用时间序列分析技术，对湛江地区1955～2004年降水量序列进行分析。验证了该序列的时间序列特性，研究该序列ARMA模型的适应情况，证实年平均降水量序列满足ARMA模型并通过该模型对未来降水量进行预测。

This paper discusses the annual rain - fall series of Zhanjiang since 1955 through 2004 ,which mainly applies the time series technology, verifies the time series characteristics , studies how the ARMA model is adopted , and approves that the ram - taU series satisfies the ARMA model condition , then forecasts the future rain - fall with this model.