近四十年来我国气温的长期变化趋势

THE LONG-RANGE VARIATIONAL TREND OF TEMPERATURE IN CHINA FROM 1951 TO 1988

利用160个站1951—1988年的气温资料,本文对近四十年来我国气温变化过程和时空特征作了分析。结果表明:全国十年平均气温从50年代至今一直在升温,80年代较50年代升高0.2℃。一般升温随纬度的增高而加强,冬秋季全国普遍增温,且升温幅度最大,夏季一般降温或升温幅度很小。总的趋势是近40年来我国大部分地区有冬暖夏凉的变化。

By using the data of air temperature from 1951 to 1988, the processes of letnperature variation and its distribution of time and space are analysed, especially for the variational trend and warming of the decade span. The results show that the decade average temperature increases from 1950's to the present and is higher 0.2℃ in 1980's, which processes and trend have good agreement with the north hemisphere. The trend and intensity of the decade span temperature variation have quite great difference among zones and seasons. Generally, warming amplifies with the latitudes from south to north. Comparing 80's with 50's the most obvious warming is in Northeast China, Average temperature increases 0.7℃ there and 0.5℃ both in Xinjiang and North China, In the area south to the Yangtze River, the average temperature decreases. In winter, the temperature generally increases over the whole country and intensifies heavily, such as the January average temperature increases 2.9℃ in Xinjiang,1.8℃ in Northwest China and 1.3℃ in North China for recent 40 years. However, temperature generally decreases or increases slightly in summer.The recent 40 years' variational processes of temperature in China may be divided into the following stages, in the beginning of 50's, the trend of temperature is stable, from the middle to the end of 50's, temperature decreases, from the end of 50's to the middle of 60's temperature increases, from the middle of 60's to the middle of 70's, temperature decreases; from 70's up to now temperature increases persistently and the amptitude of temperature increase is comparable to the values of the warm period in 40's, For area distribution, the varialional trend of temperature in the areas of north to 32, is accordant with the average conditions of the whole country, but in the areas of south to 32°N, especially in Southwest China, the variational trend is quite different from the average conditions of the whole country For the seasonal distribution, the variational trend of temperature in the most areas of China increases in winter and decreases in summer