试论影响当前中亚地区安全的正负因素

On the Factors Influencing the Regional Security in Present Central Asia

目前,正负两方面的因素影响着中亚地区的安全局势。前者如:多边安全合作日益机制化,地区安全框架已经形成;多种政治力量在该地区构成一种相对稳定的均衡结构;外部“震源”已基本被摧毁;中亚各国提高了国防能力。后者如:世界范围内恐怖势力依然强大,刺激、推动中亚的各种恐怖组织重新活动;各国均存在引发程度不同的社会动荡的可能性。总之,中亚的“三股势力”不可能有大的作为,“颜色革命”连续被“阻击”已是强弩之末,地区安全局势虽有波动,但振幅有限。

At present, positive and negative factors are influencing the security in Central Asian region. The former is as follows： multi-lateral security cooperation is institutionalizing; regional security framework is forming; political forces in this region are relatively balanced; exterior sources of ＇quakes＇ are virtually destroyed; and Central Asian countries have improved their national defense capabilities. The latter is as follows ： terror forces worldwide are still powerful ; terror organizations resume their activities; and varying possibilities triggering off social turmoil are still existent. In a word, the ＂three forces＂ in Central Asia are unable to cause serious problems, ＇color revolutions＇ has been greatly weakened, and regional security situation fluctuates but with limited amplitude.