摘要
定量风险评估是风险评估发展的主要趋势。论文基于TOPS IS和神经网络响应面法,提出一种定量风险分析方法,并运用此方法对导管架海上安装过程进行深入分析,以及时查找并消除各方面的事故隐患。首先找出潜在的风险事件及相关风险因素,然后对风险事件的模糊概率和损失程度后果进行量化,最后依据风险评价结果对需要控制的风险事件给出控制措施。实例表明,该方法是一种实用而有效的定量风险评估方法。
Quantitative risk assessment is the main trend of risk assessment. A new method is developed for quantitative analysis, based on the TOPSIS and the network response surface methods. Risk factors of jacket installation are analyzed by this method to get rid of the risk sources. Firstly find the latent risk events as well as the risk factors. Then the fuzzy frequency and the loss of each risk event are able to qualify by the advanced method. Based on the result of the risk appraisal, risk measures are provided for the risk events that should be controlled, which shows the effectiveness and applicability of this method.
出处
《海洋技术》
2006年第3期111-115,共5页
Ocean Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50579047)
