南水北调东线受水区水资源优化配置模型

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources in the Water Import Areas of the East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Region

南水北调东线工程是我国南水北调总体布局中的重要组成部分,对其水资源进行优化配置将缓解受水区的水资源短缺问题及促进该区域的社会经济发展。根据南水北调工程东线受水区的特点,将其划分为3个子区5、个用水部门,选用国内生产总值最大、区域总缺水量最小、区域重要污染物排放量最小为目标,以水源可供水量、水源至用户的输水能力、用户需水量、区域协调发展等为约束条件,结合水源供水次序系数、用户用水公平系数、需水量、水源供水量等参数,共同构成了该区域的水资源优化配置模型。通过对模型的计算结果进行分析发现,在2010年和2030年,南水北调东线工程受水区的各用水部门中,生活、环境、航运、工业用水都可以满足,只有农业用水出现短缺;南水北调工程东线受水区水资源利用与经济发展协调度较好,而经济发展与环境保护之间的协调较差,整个区域资源、经济、环境的协调性一般。

South-to-North water transfer project is to realize the water resources optimal allocation in our country in 21st century. How to layout the project is a very significant issue. The east-route project is a very important part of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. By reviewing the current researches in this field both at home and abroad, the paper makes a detailed and systematic study on the water resources optimal allocation of the water imported areas of the east route in the South-to-North water transfer project. Water resources optimal allocation can solve the problem of water shortage and promote the development of society and economy in the area. Based on the character of the water imported areas of the east route of South-to-North water transfer project,this paper divides the area into 3 zones,that is, the south of the Yellow River, the Shandong peninsula and the north of the Yellow River as well as 5 departments for water use （the life department, the environment department, the ship department, the industry department and the agriculture department）. GDP, water shortage, water contamination, water supply, transportation ability, water demand and harmony development etc were taken into account in the process of establishing the water resources optimal allocation model. The model is established based on Particle Swarm Optimizer. The results showed that there is a water shortage for agriculture use in 2010 and 2030. The water shortage of the south of the Yellow River, the Shandong peninsula and the north of the Yellow River is 15.28 × 10^8m^3 ,9.35 × 10^8m^3 and 16.15 × 10^8m^3 in 2010, respectively. The water shortage of the south of the Yellow River, the Shandong peninsula and the north of the Yellow River is 11.77 × 10^8m^3 ,6.72 × 10^8m^3 , 11.4 ×10^8m^3 in 2030, respectively.h is obvious that the South-to-North water transfer project cannot resolve the problem of water shortage in the imported areas entirely. The conflict of water supply and demand will still exist in future. To resolve the problem in the imported areas, suggestions are proposed as following：Firstly, extend water-saving irrigation modes in order to mitigate water demand for agriculture use. Secondly, through water pricing system to decrease urban water use. Lastly, regulate the industrial structure and upgrade water use efficency.