四川省成品油和天然气需求预测

Forecasting Consumption of Refined Oil and Natural Gas in Sichuan Province

本文收集了四川省及国内外能源消费和国民经济发展等有关指标的大量历史数据,在此基础上,分析了四川省能源终端消费构成,并采用部门分析法、GDP能源终端消费单耗类比法、回归分析、灰色预测、神经网络预测等多种预测方法建模,预测了四川省2010年和2020年能源终端消费量,然后经加权平均各种预测方法的预测值,确定四川省2010年和2020年能源终端消费量分别为9 738.94×104t标准煤和19 572.60×104t标准煤。再根据该预测值,采用各种能源消费比重分析,预测了四川省2010年和2020年成品油和天然气需求量。最后对成品油和天然气进行了供需平衡分析,并根据分析结果对四川省今后能源建设提出了合理建议。论文为四川省“十一五”能源规划提供了有力的数据支撑。另外,本文历时几个月艰辛收集的四川省及国内外经济发展和能源生产与消费的大量历史数据,对做同类研究的组织和个人都有十分重要的参考价值。

In the paper, we gathered many data about energy and economy in Sichuan Province or other country. Based on the data, we analyzed the structure of energy consumption in Sichuan province. And moreover, the energy consumption of Sichuan province in 2010 and 2020 were predicted respectively. Through calculating of weighted average values of predictions, the energy consumption in 2010 and 2020 identified, which are 97. 3894 million tons standard coal and 195. 726 million tons standard coal respectively. According to the consumption ratio of refined oil and natural gas in total end-point energy consumption, then we forecasted the demand of refined oil and natural gas in 2010 and 2020 respectively. At last, we analyzed the balance between the supply and demand of refined oil and natural gas. We also gave some advice to decision-maker of our province on energy development. Though refined oil is not produced in Sichuan province, it is necessary to know how much refined oil will be consumed, which can help us to have a plan to buy, transport and deposit refined oil. Natural gas is abundant in Sichuan Province and it can be used to replace other energy. This paper provides many data to help decision-maker draw the 1 lth five-year energy plan and presents some methods for energy forecast. Using many forecasting methods and qualitative analysis method to calculate the average value of energy consumption, the endpoint energy consumption can be forecasted more accurately.