北京等6城市奥运期间不利天气的概率统计

Probabilities of Bad Weather in 6 Cities During Beijing Olympic Games

基于1954—2003年我国北京、青岛、秦皇岛、天津、沈阳和上海6城市高温、沙尘、雾、雷暴、大风和暴雨等日值资料,根据统计学理论和原理,对2008年奥运会比赛期间可能出现的各种不利天气的概率进行了统计分析。结果表明:在上述所有城市中高温、沙尘、雾、大风、冰雹和暴雨等天气发生天数均具有小概率事件的统计特征,而雨日和轻雾日数两种不利天气的发生频数较高,并且其概率分布函数近似为Gamma函数。在此基础上对北京等6城市奥运会期间主要的小概率事件发生概率进行了估算,对于雨日和轻雾日数等,则给出了其出现日数的理论概率值。

It is to analyze the possibilities of the bad weather events during the period （Aug 8--24） of the upcoming Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, and thus provide scientific supports for the Games＇ arrangement and services for the better lives and better sports scores of the athletes from all over the world. Based on the daily observational data during 1954 to 2003 over 6 cities （Beijing, Qingdao, Qinhuangdao, Tianjin, Shenyang and Shanghai） and some classic statistical theories, probabilities of several kinds of bad weather are calculated and analyzed. Consequentially, some results are achieved from the analysis. Firstly, bad weather events are divided into two types： small probability events and ordinary bad weather events. For the extreme events like high temperatures, sanddust storms, hails and rainstorms in the 6 cities, they all exhibit the statistical characters of small probability events. According to the above analysis and the division, the probabilities of the small probabilities events are evaluated and fitted by binomial distribution, and the probabilities of those events are calculated by the probability function. As for the rain and light fog days, they have relatively high frequency and their occurrence probabilities abide by the Gamma distributions, then their theoretical occurrence probabilities are calculated by the Gamma distribution function. The results show that during the period of 2008 Olympic Games （Aug 8--24）, most of the small probabilities events （sand-dust storms and hails） will be unlikely to happen, but for Shanghai, the probability of 2--3 extreme hot days is still relatively high, for Qingdao, the probability of 2--3 gale days is high and the probabilities of rainstorm days get to a certain degree for all the 6 cities. For the rain days and light fog days, the probabilities for the 6 cities are all very high, which deserves much attention for the organization committee. For example, the probabilities of 4 rain days reach 70 % for all 6 cities, and the probabilities of light fog days are very high for Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai. From all the results, it is found that the extreme high temperature events and rainstorm events will be the most harmful bad weather for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, while the rainy days and foggy days will be the most frequent bad weather for the Games, both of which deserve much attention and preparation for the government and the Local Organizing Committee of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games.