北京市气象因素与霍乱发病关系的生态学研究

An Ecological Study on the Association Between Meteorological Factors and Incidence of Cholera in Beijing

目的探讨气象因素与霍乱发病的关系。方法将北京地区1996-2004年霍乱月平均发病数据进行描述性分析,对可能影响霍乱发病的气温、气压、风速、日照时数、降水量等5项研究变量进行单因素相关分析和多元逐步回归分析。结果霍乱的发病与降水、气温呈正相关,与气压呈负相关。结论霍乱发病与降水量有关。

Objective To analyse the association between meteorological factors and incidence of cholera. Methods The incidence of cholera from 1996 to 2004 in Beijing was analysed by descriptive study. The association between incidence of cholera and meteorological factors, including temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, sunshine time, rainfall etc, was explored through simple correlation and multiple stepwise regression. Results There was a significant positive correlation between incidence of cholera and temperature, rainfall respectively. And also, we found a significant negative correlation with atmospheric pressure. Conclusion The incidence of cholera is found to be correlated to the rainfall.