基于主成分分析和熵的喀斯特地区水资源承载力动态变化研究——以贵阳市为例

A Study on the Evolution of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Karst Area Based on Component Analysis and Entropy

以贵阳市为例,通过主成分分析法从15个指标中选取出影响喀斯特地区水资源承载力动态变化的3个主成分,并用熵值法对其赋权,计算出1998—2003年贵阳市水资源承载力的综合得分。进而得出,虽然贵阳市水资源承载力的两大主要压力人口和经济发展逐年增长,但除2002年出现小的波动,整体上6年来水资源承载力向良好方向发展。2002年水资源总量比较大,但受喀斯特发育的影响,水资源渗漏严重,反而使得从水资源承载力指标上来看,水资源承载力(尤其是单位水资源承载力)有所降低。随着科技的发展,水资源开发利用率和节水水平的提高,喀斯特地区水资源承载力还会有较大的富余空间。

The water level is very low in karst area and the water resources leakage is serious,so it is difficult to accumulate water resources and its development level and utilization rate is low too.In addition,the soil layer is not consecutive,the vegetation structure is simple and the environment is fragile.All these factors lead to the water resource carrying capacity in karst area is low relatively.With the development of economy,science and technology,the water resource carrying capacity in karst area displays its own evolved rules.And there are many factors that affect the evolution of water resource carrying capacity.Taking Guiyang city as an example,this article selects three components from 15 indexes through component analysis method.And then using entropy value method to bestow weights to the three components,the scores of Guiyang＇s water resource carrying capacity from 1998 to 2003 can be obtained.From the scores it is known that although the two main pressures （population and economic development）of water resource carrying capacity increase year by year,on the whole Guiyang＇s water resource carrying capacity evolved to a good direction in the six years except 2002.In 2002,the amount of water resources is very large,however,the water resource carrying capacity （especially the unit water resource carrying capacity）dropped viewing from the indexes.Affected by karst,the water resource carrying capacity is limited greatly.With the development of the technology and the improvement of water resources development level and utilization rate,there is still surplus water resource carrying capacity in the karst area.