对我国潜在产出、结构预算与财政态势的关联性研究

The Relative Research on Potential Output,Structural Budget Balance and Fiscal Stance in China

本文基于新凯恩斯型动态模型的状态空间模型对潜在产出进行估计,并利用估计结果计算出政府财政预算中的结构性成分和周期性成分。通过对周期性预算余额和结构性预算余额的分析发现,我国财政自动稳定器功能较弱,财政收入和支出的周期性波动相对较小;周期性预算余额的变化与经济周期波动相吻合;我国1998年以来的财政态势具有明显的反周期特点,其对于拉动经济增长、减少经济波动起到了重要作用。

In this paper, potential output in China are estimated by neo Keynesian dynamic model. Structural budget balance and cyclical budget balance estimated with the results above suggest that the impact of automatic fiscal stabilizer in China is small, tax revenues and expenditure exhibit a very low cyclicality, reflecting a small size Of government sector; Cyclical budget balance moves in line with business cycle; Fiscal stance in China since 1998 has been counter-cyclical, which succeeds in stimulating macro-economy and counteracting economic fluctuation.