存在即期收益时房地产开发的投资时机与可达性问题研究

Research of the Optimal Time to Develop and Its' Passage Problem for Real Estate Developers under the Immediate Profit

本文在房地产价格与建设成本均随机以及二者存在相关性的条件下,运用期权分析技术建模,研究了存在即期收益情形下的房地产最优投资时机及其可达性问题,指出投资规则中应当包含期权价值。此外,比较静态的数值分析表明,当相关性存在时,不确定性不一定提高期权价值反而会抑制房地产投资。该结论与不确定性提高期权价值,从而抑制投资的经典结果相反。同时,我们也指出,即期收益提高了投资的临界水平并赋予了投资期权以更大的价值,这表明即期收益抑制了投资水平。特别地,我们对结果亦给出了经济与政策含义。

Under the stochastic conditions of both real estate price and construction cost which are correlative, utilizing the real option technique, the author investigates the problem of the optimal timing of development and makes analysis for the first passage time problem. The result shows that there exists option value in investment rules. In addition, static analysis shows it is not certain that uncertainty can always increase the option value under the condition of the correlation. At last, we point out that immediate profit increases critical value and option＇s value. Specially, we also give the economic as well as policy implication for the model＇s results.