甘肃省粮油产量对气候变暖的敏感性研究

Sensitivity of crop output to large-scale temperature changes in Gansu Province

为揭示甘肃各地粮食和油料作物产量对大尺度气温变化响应的程度，利用1981～2000年甘肃省各地小麦、玉米、马铃薯、糜子、谷子等粮食作物和胡麻、油菜等油料作物产量和相应4～10月的气温数据，采用EOF分析方法，研究了甘肃粮油产量对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明：小麦、玉米、胡麻产量对气候变化比较敏感，敏感区主要在河西地区，黄土高原地区对气候变化的敏感性不强；糜子、马铃薯、油菜在大部分地方不敏感，谷子基本不敏感。提出了农业产业结构调整的一些建议。

The sensitivity of output index of different crops（wheat, corn, potato, panic, millet, flax, rape）to the large-scale climate variations was investigated by using the crop production data and the meteorological data of growing seasons （Apr. to Oct. ） during the period of 1980-2000. The results show that the output of wheat, corn and flax was much sensitive to climate changes, and the sensitive area was mainly in Hexi region, but the Loess Plateau region was less sensitive; the output of panic, potato and rape was not sensitive in most regions; and the output of millet was generally not sensitive. Moreover, some suggestions for the adjustment of agro-industrial structure in Gansu Province were proposed.