利用马尔可夫链方法测报马尾松毛虫发生级别

Forecast of Occurrence Level of Dendrolimus punctatus by Markov Chains

根据广东郁南1975—2002年马尾松毛虫发生程度的历史资料,应用马尔可夫链方法对2003—2005年的马尾松毛虫发生级别进行了预测,并对1990—2002年的发生级别进行了回测,历史符合率为92.31%。

A study was conducted to forecast the occurrence level of Dendrolimus punetatus during 2003-2005 by means of Markov chains based on the historical data of occurrence degree of D. punetatus from 1975 to 2002 in Yunan, Guangdong Province. The forecast accuracy of occurrence level from 1990 to 2002 was 92.31%.