摘要
文中按照长、中、短,临的渐近式预报模式给出了地震综合分析预报的概率判定方法。并对1976年唐山7.8级地震和1983年菏泽5.9级地震前的众多前兆现象,运用所给出的方法进行预测检验。结果表明,在短、临阶段计算的发震的综合概率分别达到95.6％、99％。根据对京、津地区20多年来的M_L≥4.5地震活动和前兆资料的一些震例研究结果,最后给出了预测京、津、唐、张地区M_L≥4.5地震的综合概率判定方法。
A method of probability judgement for comprehensive analysis and long-term, medium-range, short-term and impending earthquake prediction is given in this paper. Numerous precursors observed before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake M7.8 and the 1983 Heze earthquake M5.9 have been used to test the method proposed here. The results show that the synthetic probabilities of short-term and impending forecasts reached 95.6% and 99% respectively. Finally based on studies on examples of earthquakes with ML ≥ 4.5 and relevant precursory data in Beijing-Tianjin region in the last 20 years over, the method of synthetic probability judgement for forecasting. earthquakes ML ≥ 4.5 in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Zhangjiakou region presented has been.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第3期40-47,55,共9页
Earthquake
