水文地球化学预报地震的理论基础、方法与实例

THEORETICAL BASIS,METHOD AND EXAMPLES OF EARTH-QUAKE PREDICTION BY HYDROGEOCHEMISTRY

本文对水文地球化学预报地震的理论基础、方法及现状进行了全面阐述。作者认为,为了解决地震预报问题,必须扩大研究领域,在用地球物理方法研究的同时,开展地震孕育过程中地球化学问题的研究,并提出了从水文地球化学的角度研究震源及外国介质状态变化的必要性与可能性。 文中介绍了地震水文地球化学观测台网的建设及水化多组分综合观测所取得的成果,并给出了近年来在探索新的反映地震灵敏组分方面如汞和氢的震例。对我国水化地震观测使用的仪器设备的现状及合理的采水方式、观测资料的收集整理、分析处理系统方面取得的成果及存在问题以及如何提高地震监测预报水平等进行了讨论。

The theoretical basis, method and recent development in earthquake prediction by using hy-dro-geochemical means are described in this paper. In order to resolve the problems regarding earthquake prediction, the author deems that in addition to geophysical studies, the research field should be expanded to study geochemical problems in relation to the processes of earthquake preparedness, and that it is necessary and possible to study the variations of the medium state in and around seismic source from hydro-geochemical view.The establishment of observatory networks of hydro-geochemistry is introduced, and some results of multi-detecting hydro-chemical components are also given in this paper. In recent explorations, some hydro-chemical components, such as mercury and hydrogen have been found being sensitive to earthquakes, and this is discussed with some examples. The author has also discussed the recent development of the observatory facilities used in this country, reasonable methods of water sampling, and of data collection and processing systems, pointed out some existing problems, and discussed how to raise the level of precursory monitoring and earthquake prediction.