八十年代中国地震预报的主要进展

MAIN PROGRESS OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN EIGHTIES

本文扼要总结了八十年代八个方面的进展: 1.地震观测系统取得了明显的改善; 2.各类地震前兆观测台网进行了调整与优化; 3.对干扰的识别与排除建立了成套方法; 4.总结了地震前兆特征、预报判据、指标,编制了地震预报程式化指南; 5.确立了地震综合预报的研究内容与方法; 6.在“以物理为基础的概率预报”方向上迈出了可喜的第一步; 7.在检测短临前兆上进行了扎实的努力; 8.系统科学在地震预报中的应用已取得了初步结果。

This paper brifly summarized the progress in the following eight feilds in the 80's:(1) The seismological observation system was improved obviously;(2) Various observational networks of seismic precursors were adjusted and optimized;(3) A complete set of methods were established for distinguishing and eliminating interference;(4) We have summed up seismic precursory characteristics, prediction criteria, indices and compiled the programming guide for earthquake prediction;(5) The research contents and methods for synthetic earthquake prediction were defined;(6) We have made the first encouraging step in the direction of probability prediction on the basis of physics;(7) Solid efforts have been made in detecting short-impending precursors;(8) The application of the systematic science to earthquake prediction has obtained a preliminary result.