前兆研究的进展、困难和建议

PROGRESS,DIFFICULTY AND SUGGESTION FOR PRECURSORY RESEARCH

本文试图从仪器研制,监测、预报和通讯系统建设,排除干扰、识别异常和分析预报方法的研究,以及前兆机理和震源物理等方面,简要地总结近十年我国地震前兆研究的进展。又从机理研究、统计检验以及提高仪器灵敏度和抑制干扰之间的矛盾等方面讨论了前兆研究在科学技术上面临的困难,同时分析了当前发展前兆研究面临的经费需求矛盾。最后,对今后如何进一步开展前兆研究提出了若干建议。

This paper intends to summarize the progress in the seismic precursory research in China in the last ten years briefly from the aspects of instrumental development, establishment of monitoring, prediction and communicative systems, research on the methods of disposal of interference, recognition of anomalies and analytical prediction as well as the precursory mechanism and focal physics. Here also discussed the difficulty in face of the precursory research in science and technology from aspects of mechanism study, statistic test as well as the contradiction between the improvement of the instrumental sensitivity and rejection of interference, and simultaneously analyzed the contradiction of funds requirement in recent development of precursory research. Finally, some suggestions were put forward on how to launch precursory research further in future.