大规模劳动力转移条件下的经济收敛性分析

An Analysis of Economic Convergence under Conditions of Large-scale Labor Migration

本文提出一个大规模劳动力转移条件下的经济收敛性分析框架。经济收敛的性质取决于劳动力转移的规模,较小规模的劳动力转移会引致直接收敛,而较大规模劳动力转移会使经济收敛性质呈现先发散后收敛的动态变化。对中国数据的实证检验表明,20世纪90年代中后期由于大规模劳动力转移,经济增长出现发散趋势,而现阶段正处于发散与收敛的过渡阶段,但这种趋势的出现是以二元结构转换速度放慢为代价的。为此,政府应努力改变农村劳动力跨地区流动的现状,一方面通过增加欠发达地区的公共支出,改善投资环境,引导产业梯度转移和欠发达地区发展劳动密集型产业,实现农村劳动力就近转移;另一方面,政府应鼓励先进地区提升技术创新的能力,实现产业升级,促进经济增长方式的根本转变。

This paper provides a framework for analysis of economic convergence under conditions of large-scale labor migration. The nature of the economic convergence depends on the scale of labor migration. While labor migration on a smaller scale leads to direct economic convergence, on a larger scale it causes a dynamic process moving from divergence to convergence. Empirical data from China show that during the mid and late 1990s economic growth showed a tendency toward economic divergence due to large-scale labor migration, and a tendency of transition from divergence to convergence in recent years, but this took place at the cost of slower transformation of the rural-urban dual structure. In this regard, the government should endeavor to change the current situation in the inter-regional migration of labor. On the one hand, public expenditure should be increased in under-developed areas to improve the investment environment in order to bring about an industrial gradient shift and the development of labor-intensive industries leading to intra-regional labor migration. On the other hand, the government should encourage more developed areas to build up their capacity in technological innovation and upgrade their industries, so as to promote the fundamental transformation of the mode of economic growth.