政府购买与居民消费的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Government Purchasing and Resident Consumption in China

本文的目的是探讨我国政府购买与居民消费的关系,深入了解我国财政政策对实体经济的影响。文章利用1995年至2004年我国时间序列资料和城市与农村居民家庭资料,通过加入政府购买一般化恒常收入模型进行估计,并比较两组结果。研究中特别将时间序列资料变量为非定态随机过程,并将变量间可能具有的协整关系、社会消费的过度敏感现象以及可支配收入系数的显著结构性变动纳入考虑因素。实证结果显示,时间序列资料及家庭资料均支持政府购买性支出与居民消费有互补关系,并且互补程度基本相同,互补程度系数介于0·32至0·38之间。

This paper aims to examine the impact of China's fiscal policy on the real economy by exploring the relations between government purchasing and resident consumption. Estimations are made using time-series data and urban and rural household data for 1995-2004, with the addition of a generalized common income model of government purchasing, and the results are compared. In particular, the time-series data variables are taken as a non-stationary stochastic process, and possible co-integration of variables, over-sensitivity of social consumption and significant structural changes in the disposable income coefficient are taken into account. The empirical results show that government purchasing expenses and residents' consumption are complementary, on the basis of both time-series and household data. The coefficients of complementarity are between 0.32 and 0.38, suggesting a similar degree of complementarity in both directions.