不确定性项目投资决策中的实物期权研究

The real option research of uncertainty project investment decision-making

在一些不确定性项目决策过程中,传统的评价方法出现了不完整甚至错误的结论,这是因为传统的方法没有考虑到项目的管理柔性的价值,针对这种情况,文章引入了实物期权理论,详细阐述了如何建立项目投资评价的实物期权框架,并且用一个实例说明了如何运用定量的分析来实际操作一个延迟期权的价值。

In the decision process of the project investment under uncertainty, there appeared that the traditional valuation method was imperfect and even error because it didn＇t consider the managerial flexibility. Aiming at this circumstance, this paper introduced real option theory and detailedly expatiated how to set up real option structure about project investment evaluation, at last with an example, it explained how to use quantitative analysis to practically operate a deferring option＇s value.