交互式城市需水预测模型的建立及其应用

Establishment and Application of the Interactive Model of the Urban Water Demand Prediction

结合经济社会发展状况与水资源的特点,建立一个基于研究区域经济层次的交互式城市需水预测模型。该模型能够充分体现出社会经济、生态、环境和水资源各个系统间的复杂关系。模型根据不同预测内容分为经济总量预测、经济结构预测、需水定额预测、需水量预测4个模块,采用不同预测方法,在EXCEL平台上实现,实用性强,适应性较好。经在乌鲁木齐市应用,效果很好。

In the experiment, the interactive model of the urban water demand was established on the economic basis of the region, combining with the developmental situation of economic society and the character of the water resources. The model could sufficiently indicate the complicated relationship between social economy,ecology, environment and water resources. The model was divided into 4 contents： prediction of gross economic amount, prediction of economic structure, prediction of water demand quota and prediction of water demand. The more adaptable and more practical prodiction method could be adopted with the platform of EXCEL, which has achieved good results in Urumqi city.