基于故障树的油气管道失效概率模型

Model on the Failure Probability of Oil and Gas Pipeline Based on the Faulty Tree

故障树是一个可以形象地表示失效事件发生逻辑关系的定性模型,它可用于识别失效影响因素,结合事故数据统计、模拟试验及专家意见,可以得到失效的定量模型。在油气管道失效故障树定性分析的基础上,对油气管道失效故障树进行定量分析。提出了用改进的专家判断法来确定管段失效基本事件概率,并将模糊概率概念引入其中。其中,利用层次分析法来确定专家意见权重,并用此权重来修正专家意见。在确定管道失效概率时,考虑到最小割集中基本事件独立性和相关性,分别建立了油气管道失效的事件独立性概率模型与事件相关性概率模型。最后,还建立了基本事件概率重要度系数的数学模型。

The faulty tree is a qualitative model imaging the logical relation when the failure events happen, which can be used to identify the failure influence factors, to get the failure quantitative model combined with accident data statistics, simulation test as well as expert statements. Based on the qualitative analysis to the failure faulty tree of oil and gas pipeline, the quantitative analysis is also done, At the same time, the probability of elementary events of pipeline failure can be confirmed by using the method of improved expert assessment, with the concept of fuzzy probability being introduced to it. In the course of this, the weight of the expert opinions can be determined by step analysis, in turn be used to revise the expert＇s idea, When the failur probability of pipeline is defined, both probability models about event independence and event relevance of pipeline failure has been built up respectively on account of the independence and relevance of elementary events in a minimum cut set, At last, the mathematical model has also been made on the coefficient of probability important degree of the elementary events.