长江口北槽航道淤积过程的动态系统数学模拟

DYNAMICAL IDENTIFICATION AND MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION OF ACCRETION PROCESS FOR THE NORTH CHANNEL IN YANGTZE ESTUARY

采用非传统方法——现代控制理论中的动态系统辨识理论与时间序列分析相结合的方法对长江口北槽人工航道淤积过程作探讨、建模及预报，从得到的动态数学模型的模拟结果、预报结果看，与实际情况相吻，说明此尝试是成功的。

The north channel in Yangtze Estuary is one of sea leading ways of Shanghai Harbour. In this paper, modeling and prediction of accretion process for the channel are discussed using a new method. This method is based on combining dynamic system identification with time series analysis. According to the simulations, polar analysis and prediction, it has been shown that this method is efficient and the results are satisfactory.