中国近三千年来火灾群发周期分析

A Preliminary Research of Synchronous Periods of Conflagrations in the Past 3000 Years in China

中国近三千年来大火灾害事件存在着多种时间尺度的群发期。主要的群发期出现在中国周代（６００—４９０ａＢ．Ｃ）、西汉（６０－０ａＢ．Ｃ）、东汉（１００－２００ａＡ．Ｄ）、南北朝（４８０－５７０ａＡ．Ｄ）、唐代（７００－８５０ａＡ．Ｄ）、宋代（１１２０－１２４０ａＡ．Ｄ）、明代（１５００－１６００ａＡ．Ｄ）及清代（１６６０－１７６０ａＡ．Ｄ）八个时期。多尺度群发周期序列为５１７、１７３、１２９、９０、６３、４４、３２、２３、１６、１１年，具有普适性、可公度性、标度不变性。

This paper discusses the characteristics of synchronous periods of the conflagrations dur ing the past 3000 years in China and points out the predominant periods occurred approxi nately in the eight stages,i.e,Chinese Zhou-Dynasty(600-490 year B.C),West Han Dynasty(60-0 years B.C), East Han-Dynasty(100-200 years A.D),South and North Dynasty(480-570 years A.D)Tang Dynasty (700-850 years A. D),Song Dynasty (1120-1240 years A.D),Ming Dynasty(1500-1600 years A.D),and Qing Dynasty (1660-1760 years A.D).By means of power spectrum and maximum entropy spectrum,the synchronous periods (years)of fire disasters have been obtained as following:517,173,129,90,63,44,32,23,16,11.They are of the universality,Commensurability and scal ing invariability.