科技项目模糊综合评价方法研究

The Research on the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Scientific and Technical Projects

在分析传统评价方法的基础上,综合主观评价与客观评价,提出一种主客观评价相结合、模糊技术与决策方法相结合的组合赋权模糊综合评价方法,该方法以对评价指标值进行模糊化、归一化和无量纲化预处理为前提,在融合经典方法的基础上,对项目实际完成情况进行定量分析,同时结合专家组的定性评价进行综合评判,既可避免人为的主观片面性,又能对专家意见给予足够的重视,并能对评价过程中遇到的信息的不完备性和不确定性做出相应的处理.该方法应用于国家863科技项目信息管理与评价实验系统(CSHWES),评价结果不仅体现了项目的实际完成情况,而且考虑了单个项目的完成情况在同类项目中所处的水平,使评价结果更加客观、公正、合理.

By the analysis of traditional evaluation methods, this paper presents a combinatorial weighting fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method which is amalgamation of objective evaluation, subjective evaluation, fuzzy technology and making decision methods. With the fuzzification, normalization and non-dimension precondition of evaluation indices and on the basis of the inosculation of classical methods, the method makes quantitative analysis to the actual accomplishment of projects, and at the same time, it combines with the qualitative evaluation of the experts, and then give the final evaluation. In this way, the results can not only avoid the one sidedness of subjectivity hut also attach importance to the experts＇ opinion. For the more, the incomplete and uncertainty information appeared in the evaluation process can be treated with by this method. The method has been applied to the Information Management and Evaluation System of ＂863＂ Technical Projects （CSHWES）. The evaluating results not only show the actual performance of a technical project but also imply the level of the actual performance of a technical project within all the technical projects. It makes the evaluating results more equitable and reasonable.