中美贸易差额新估算及中方对策

New Estimation of Sino-US Trade Balance and China’s Countermeasures

随着中美经贸关系的快速发展，逆差问题呈逐年上升趋势，双边贸易摩擦也日益加剧，给中美经贸关系的发展带来了消极影响。本文基于对1994—2004年中美双边贸易差额的分析研究，剔除统计不对称及增值率因素，重估十年来双边贸易差额范围，进一步全面探讨中美不平衡贸易政治、经济等深层次原因，并提出为了平衡中美贸易，中方应采取的对策为：应推进新贸易统计方法的研究实施；调整产业结构和贸易结构；加快产业的升级换代；加大知识产权保护力度，发展技术贸易；企业应该采取措施缓解中美贸易摩擦。

In recent years, with the fast development of the Sino-US economics and trade, the trade deficit has been rising year by year and the trade conflicts have been increasingly aggravated, bringing about negative effects on both sides. Based on the analysis of the Sino-US trade gap from 1994 to 2004, neglecting such factors as unsymmetrical statistics and increment ratio, this paper re-estimates the Sino-US trade range during these ten years and further studies the Sino-US unbalance trade on the deeper level of politics and economics. Also this paper puts forward the countermeasures that may be taken to balance the Sino-US trade. That is, it is advisable to carry out the research on new trade statistical methods, readjust industrial and trade structures, speed up the renewal of industry,strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights so as to develop technological trade, and take measures to alleviate the conflicts of the Sino-US trade.