用GM（1，1）预测打桩噪声的传播

Prediction of Propagation of Pile Driving Noise by Means of GM (1, 1)

打桩施工过程中噪声的传播规律的研究，如果建立在一般物理模型基础元上．势必会由于实际传播过程中的未知因素过多而难以深入进行。本文利用灰色系统模型预测方法，建立非本征灰色系统中物理参量按坐标分布的一般ＧＭ（１，１）模型，用实地测量获取的少量打桩噪声数据构成原始序列，按ＧＭ（１，１）模型进行预测计算。结果表明预测值与实测值基本吻合，这种方法对于打桩施工噪声的环境污染的预测和管理具有实际意义。

It is very difficult to study the rule of propagation of piling noise if we use general physical model because there are too many unknown factors involved in the process of propagation. In this paper,the authors established a non-eigen GM (1, 1 ) model with physical parameters distributed in coordinate by means of the method of propagation of grey system modeling. The parameters are original series taken from limited measurements of piling noise. The result shows a good correlation between prediction and reality.