摘要
运用灰色理论对我国各个省市未来人口总量进行预测,并应用GIS的空间自相关理论和方法对未来人口空间分布模式做出预测。研究认为,从2005年到2020年中:北京、天津、江苏、上海、浙江等省市始终保持与周围省市人口密度的高高关联关系,围绕这些省市的省份区域形成了相对人口聚集区域,西部许多省份及东北几省与周围的省份人口密度是维持着低低关联模式。广东省始终保持与周围省市人口密度的高高关联关系,即本省只是单独形成了一个聚集点。2014年是我国人口空间分布格局变动较大的时期。
The gross population of each province and city is predicted by gray theory and the population spatial distribution pattern is forecasted by employing spatial autocorrelation theory of GIS. The study indicates that from 2005 to 2020, the population density of some quarters like Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Shanghai will remain a high - high correlation with the surrounding areas＇ population density. In those areas population concentration has emerged. The population density of some quarters in the west and north east will remain a low - low correlation with the surrounding areas＇ population density. Guangdong province is negatively correlated with its surrounding areas, thus it is only a concentration point. 2014 will witness many great changes in population distribution.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第5期759-762,共4页
Economic Geography
基金
福建省青年科技人才创新项目(编号:2005J007)
国家高技术研究发展计划863项目(编号:2001AA135080)联合资助
关键词
GIS
空间分析
人口预测
灰色预测
GIS
spatial analysis
population- projection
forecasting by gray number
