基于空间自相关的非洲经济格局

STUDY ON AFRICAN ECONOMY STRUCTURE BASED ON SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION

通过收集1992—2000年非洲经济发展的统计数据,选用10项代表性指标,采用均方差权数法计算各指标的权重,计算得出非洲各国家的经济综合指数,并采用空间自相关方法探讨非洲各国的经济分异特征与规律。分析结果表明:Moran’s I指数为0.0214,非洲经济总体上存在弱的正空间自相关,说明非洲没有明显的区域经济集聚,而是具有较强的空间异质性,经济发展基本为“增长极”模式,尚未形成明显的经济区划。根据非洲各国的经济综合指数和局域空间自相关系数,采用层次聚类分析方法,将非洲经济发展模式划分为6种类型:集聚发展型、极核发展型、集中贫困型、贫困核型、强嵌套发展型和弱嵌套发展型。最后,对非洲经济空间格局形成的原因进行了简要分析。

In this paper, the economic development data of Africa in 1990 - 2000 were collected, 10 representative indexes were selected, weights of indexes were calculated used the average-variance- weight method, the economic comprehensive index of African countries was calculated, and the character and ride of economic structure was analyzed at the base of the spatial autocorrelation method. The results showed that：①the value of Moran＇ s I was 0. 0214, which means that African economy presents infirm positive spatial autocorrelation, in Africa, the region economy centralization and economy area was not existing,while the spatial heterogeneity was obvious; ②based on the economy index and local Moran＇ s I, the development pattern could be classified six classes and used hierarchical cluster analysis method; ③the influence of factors in Africa economy were analyzed, e.g. mineral resourse abundance, location of countries, society and history factors. There were main factors.