昆明市城镇职工医疗保险微观模拟模型的构建

Construction of microsimulation model of urban employees' medical insurance in Kunming city

目的:探讨微观分析模拟模型在昆明市医疗保险基金趋势预测中的应用。方法:以SAS8.2为平台,利用计算机仿真技术和ARENA仿真软件,构建昆明市城镇职工医疗保险微观分析模拟模型。结果:昆明市城镇职工医疗保险微观分析模拟模型构建分为4个步骤:(1)明确模拟目标;(2)构造微观数据文件;(3)模型系统设计与编程;(4)程序运行与结果预测。系统主要由状态子模型、行为子模型、政策子模型构成。结论:本模型是一个基本符合昆明近期参保职工类别分布的模型,模拟结果可以反映出近期医保政策执行的效果。

Objective： To discuss the application of microsimulation model in forecasting the change of medical insurance risk-pooling fund in Kunming city. Methods.. Taking the SASS. 2 software as the platform, we constructed a microsimulation model for urban employees＇ medical insurance in Kunming city using computer simulation technology and ARENA simulation software. Results： The construction process included 4 steps： （1） to confirm the simulation object; （2） to construct the micro data file; （3） to design the system and to program; （4） to run the program and forecast the result. The system mainly consisted of population status module,action module and policy module. Conclusion： The present model complies with the latest type distribution of employees in Kunming, and its simulation result can reflect the effectiveness of medical insurance policy in recent years.