内生比较优势演化——基于中国制造业的经验研究

Evolving Patterns of Endogenous Comparative Advantage——An Empirical Study on Chinese Manufacturing Sectors

文章构建了一个国际贸易动态分析框架将技术变迁和比较优势模式的动态演进同时内生化,说明了部门的干中学和国际知识外溢分别是比较优势模式演化呈固化性和流动性的主要动因。但是,内生比较优势在长期内是不断固化还是发生逆转最终是一个经验研究的问题。文章采用了马尔可夫链来考察中国制造业比较优势动态分布的固化性和流动性的程度,研究结果显示,中国制造业比较优势模式的演变具有固化性的特征。

This paper develops a theoretical framework of international trade dynamics endogenizing the technological change and evolution of comparative advantage. The model suggests that sector-specific learning by doing and international knowledge spillover respectively provide reasons why patterns of comparative advantage may persist or exhibit mobility over time. Thus, whether endogenous pattern of comparative advantage reinforces or reverses over time is ultimately an empirical question. Markov chains are used to evaluate the extent of persistence or mobility in China＇ s trade in manufactured goods. We find evidence of persistence in patterns of Chinese manufacturing comparative advantage.