摘要
分年龄别生育率是人口统计学的重要指标,它可以用基于随机分布函数的生育率模型来描述.文中介绍了对数正态分布模型和泊松分布模型,在此基础上构造了生育率组合模型.仿真结果表明,与单一模型相比,组合模型精度更高,其适用范围也更广泛.
Age-specific fertility rate is one of the most important indexes in demography. Random distribution functions are usually used for modeling of the age-specific fertility rate. This paper presented two fertility rate models, i. e. , lognormal distribution model and Poisson distribution model. Based on these two models, a composite model was proposed. By analyzing the result of simulation, the composite model can improve the model accuracy, and work well with a variety of population data.
出处
《上海交通大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第9期1613-1616,共4页
Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University
关键词
分年龄别生育率
对数正态分布模型
泊松分布模型
组合模型
age-specific fertility rate
lognormal distribution model
Poisson distribution mode
composite model