摘要
对西安市的旅游业来说,入境游是旅游收入的主要来源。根据入境游客人数的多少,旅游接待部门可相应确定旅游接待服务设施规模,优化资源配置。因此对入境游客数量进行预测是十分重要和必要的。针对西安市入境旅游人数预测问题构造了一个BP神经网络模型,对近些年入境旅游人数进行了预测。并将其结果与线性网络进行了比较。结果表明:该方法能有效地对旅游客源进行预测。
To the Xi＇an＇s tourist industry, the income from the abroad is the main resource of the travel income. Tourist site may constitute reception scale according to tourist quantity. So it is very important and necessary to forecast tourist quantity. A tourist quantity forecast method based on BP artificial neural network is proposed to forecast Xi＇an＇s tourist quantity. Its effect is compared with the linear neural network. The results indicate that the BP artificial neural network adapted to forecast tourist quantity.
关键词
BP神经网络
线性神经网络
预测
客源
BP neural network
linear neural network
forecast
tourist quantity
