基于马氏链首达时间的干旱区LUCC过程研究——以新疆于田绿洲为例

Research on LUCC Process in Arid Area Based on First Passage Time of Markov Chain——With Yutian Oasis as an example

Markov链在LUCC动态变化过程研究中已有广泛的应用,而对于首达时间参数的应用却很少提及。以新疆塔里木盆地南缘的典型绿洲——于田县为研究区,结合TM遥感影像的分类结果,以马氏链首达时间为主要参数对于田绿洲各地类之间的相互转化趋势进行分析,结果表明:基于首达时间参数分析的结果与实际相符。因此通过对首达时间参数的分析,能够揭示出区域LUCC动态变化过程的一般规律。并且首达时间具有直观、简单、便于分析的特点,因此在LUCC过程研究中,对首达时间这一参数的应用应予以重视。

Markov chain has been widely applied in the research on LUCC dynamic change process, while the application of the first passage time parameter has hardly been mentioned. This paper takes the typical area of Yutian Oasis in the south of Tarim Basin in Xinjiang Autonomous Region as the research area, combining classified results of the TM remote sensing images and analyzing mutual transformed tendency between different kinds of land use types in Yutian Oasis based on the first passage time parameter of Markov chain. The result shows that the analysis results based on the first passage time parameter match the actual results. Therefore, through the analysis of the first passage time parameter, we can conclude the general rule of the LUCC dynamic change process in the regions. And since the first passage time parameter is direct-viewing, simple and easy to analyze, importance should be attached to the application of the first passage time parameter in the research of LUCC process.