流动人口分布与区域经济发展关系若干解释(1990、2000)

Some explanations to the relationships between the geographical distribution change of migrants and economic development change in regions of China,1990 and 2000

本文对我国1990、2000年间流动人口在东、中、西部和东部地区中环渤海、长江三角洲、珠江三角洲及福建三个亚区的分布变化以及这一分布变化与上述各地区各相关经济与非经济因素变化的关系进行了研究。研究发现,10年中流动人口东、中、西部分布变化与东、中、西部经济发展的变化高度一致;而10年中流动人口在东部地区环渤海、长江三角洲、珠江三角洲及福建这三个亚区层面的分布变化则与经济发展要素变化有一致的方面,也有不一致的方面。珠江三角洲及福建的经济增长带来了流动人口的大幅增长,除珠江三角洲劳动密集型企业众多外,这可能与该区域地方社会人文等文化本底所决定的经济发展制度及习俗有一定的相关性。

Since the migration is a complex economic and social driving phenomenon, to fully understand the relationship between the changes of migrants distribution and the changes of regional economic development is difficult and needs to be considered carefully. Based on the data base compiled from ＂The Fourth Population Census of China＂ and ＂The Fifth Population Census of China＂ and the relevant data from the statistical yearbooks of China in relevant years, this paper analyzed the regional changes of migrant population distribution of East, Central and West China as well as the regional changes of migrant population distribution in sub-regions of Bohai Rim, the Yangtze and Pearl river deltas from 1990 to 2000. In this paper the relationships between the regional changes of migrant population distribution and the changes of economic development in the corresponding regions were analyzed, It is found out that there is a high coincidence between the regional changes of migrant population distribution and the economic development at macro regions of East, Central and West China, i.e. the concentration of migrant population distribution depends on the regional economic development from 1990 to 2000. The distribution of migrants were in the order of East, Central and West China both in 1990 and 2000, which was just similar to the GDP, investment in fixed assets and level of industrial structure. However, there is only partly coincidence relationship between the two at the sub-regions of Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. The growth of GDP and the investment in fixed assets in the Pearl River Delta resulted in disproportional sharp growth of local migrants from 1990 to 2000. Except for the great amount of labor-intensive industries in the Pearl Delta, this phenomenon may be explained by the social and human factors and costumes which determine the local development systems. Further investigations on the relation, data-based model building and the migration forecast in China may be the future research focus.