边界效应的测定方法及其在长江三角洲的应用

On the temporo-spatial variations of the border effects:approach and empirics

采用Barro回归方程结合重力模型,构建了区域经济一体化进程中对行政区边界效应的度量方法,并以长江三角洲地区为例,对20世纪90年代江苏与浙江、上海与江苏、上海与浙江的边界效应进行了实证分析。通过邹检验发现,长江三角洲各城市间的经济水平存在结构性的差异,进一步的回归检验结果表明,长江三角洲各城市间存在一体化的趋势,但存在着边界效应;从变动态势上看,上海与江苏的边界效应越来越小,上海与浙江的边界效应存在增加的趋势,同时,江苏与浙江的边界在区域一体化的影响减少。最后,从自然条件、历史发展、行政区经济、发展模式和制度安排等方面分析了边界效应及演变的原因。

Regional economic incorporation illustrates trends of regional economic development and space structure transformation in the world. In China, the research on this topic has neglected border effects in the process of regional economic incorporation in most domestic relating articies at present. Therefore, this paper attempts to measure border effects throughout economic incorporation process. Based on combination of Barro regression and Gravity model, this paper establishes a new approach to measure the border effects over administrative areas in the construction process of regional economic incorporation. By exemplifying the Yangtze River Delta （YRD）, the measurement is employed to demonstrate and analyze concerned border effects between Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, between Shanghai city and Jiangsu province, and between Shanghai city and Zhejiang province in the late 1990s. Firstly, according to Chou breakpoint test, struclural alteration is discovered by internal samples within provinces, and between provinces or cities in the YRD. That is, structural alteration exists in economic levels among cities in the YRD. Moreover, empirical results of regression indicate that incorporation trend exists among cities in the YRD, while borders of administrative areas hinder regional incorporation process, which means border effects exist. Secondly, from the point of alteration tendency, border effects between Shanghai and Jiangsu turned smaller gradually from 1990 to 2000. However, border effectes between Shanghai and Zhejiang became greater. Meanwhile, border effects between Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreases in regional incorporation. Finally, this paper analyzes border effects and causes of the transformation via natural conditions, historical development, economy within the administrative area, development mode and institutional arrangement and so on. Concerning regional fundamental facilities incorporation and institutional co-ordination among all levels of governments in the administrative area, it is claimed that to break administrative borders can realize regional harmonious economic development.