碳税和能源税情景下的中国电力清洁技术选择

Clean technology options for China's power industry in carbon tax and energy tax cases

通过应用电力部门综合资源规划评价模型(IRPA),对在电力部门引入碳税和能源税后对发电技术选择、电价以及相应的环境排放的影响进行了研究。该模型是一个最小成本技术优化模型,通过比较在征收碳税和能源税后不同技术成本的变化,得出未来电力部门的技术构成、电力价格和环境排放。模型初步分析结果显示,在碳税和能源税税率分别达到25美元/tC和0.5美元/Mbtu时,通过对电力生产端和消费端的共同影响,电力部门的二氧化碳、二氧化硫、氮氧化物的排放将明显减少,技术构成也将得到明显改善。相比较而言,某些先进发电技术如煤气化联合循环、天然气联合循环等更具有成本竞争性,在未来规划中应给予优先考虑。

With the Integrated Resource Planning Assessment （IRPA） model, effects of the carbon tax and energy tax introduction on technological selection, power price and local air pollution in power industry of China were studied. This model is a least-cost generation planning model, with which the technical composition, electricity price and pollutant emission can be calculated by comparing the cost changes for different power generation options due to carbon and energy taxes. The primary simulation result shows that the levy of 25 $/tC carbon tax or 0.5 $/Mbtu energy tax can improve the power generation structure and reduce CO2, SO2 and NOx emission in power industry greatly. Several advanced power generation technologies such as IGCC and NGCC are of competitive cost, and should be given priority in future planning of power industry.