地下水开采引起地面沉降预测方法的现状与未来

State-of-the-art of Approaches of Predicting Land Subsidence due to Groundwater Withdrawal

地面沉降作为一种广泛的地质灾害,不仅对地面设施造成很大的破坏作用,而且也会使地下环境发生变化,给工业生产、城市建设和人们生活带来的影响是深刻和巨大的。本文首先分析了地下水开采引起地面沉降的机理;然后根据运用的理论将目前由于地下流体资源开发引起地面沉降的预测方法归纳为5种:数理统计法、早期的数值计算法、准三维计算法、基于真三维水流模型的计算法及三维完全耦合模型,并将之分类总结,概括其优缺点。重点介绍了当前运用最多的准三维预测方法,以及1种基于真三维水流模型的计算方法,该方法曾经成功地分析了日本房总半岛由于地下水抽取引起的地面沉降。

Land subsidence is an extensive geological disaster. It makes great destruction on ground establishments, and bring changes to underground environment. The impacts on industry, urban construction and living are profound and huge. Many international scholars proposed many approaches to predict land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal according to different geological condition and groundwater withdrawal practice. There are so many approaches to predict and calculate land subsidence. This paper analyzed the mechanism of subsidence due to withdrawal of groundwater based on effective stress princi- ple. Then according to the different analytical theories, the prediction methods are summarized into five categories： statistical model, numerical analysis in early stage, quisi-3D analysis, and 3D analysis. This paper emphasizes the quisi-3D analysis method which is in common use. This is an integrative method combined 3D groundwater seepage and 1D consolidation. It was applied to analyse land subsidence of Boso peninsula in Japan.