基于领导者-追随者混合结构模型的创新扩散实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Innovation Diffusion Based on Leader-Imitator Structure Model

本文借用经济学中领导者、追随者的概念，建立领导者-追随者混合结构模型来研究创新扩散的行为模式。领导者和追随者区别在于他们创新采纳行为的驱动力，而不是他们采纳时间的早晚。研究结果表明：创新扩散速度不是单调的，而是经历了一个先升后降的过程，最后收敛于领导者的采用速度；扩散过程中存在“高科技裂谷”现象；领导者在创新扩散中一直起着举足轻重的作用。

Borrowing the economic concepts of leaders and imitators, the paper builds a leader - imitator structure model to study the innovation diffusion. The difference between leaders and imitators lies on their motivation of taking innovation action, but not on the time they adopt it. The main results are given as follows ： the speed of innovation diffusion is not a monotonic process but a process of ascending in the beginning and descending after, and then is at the convergent speed that adopted by leaders ; Diffusion in a mixture of leaders and imitators can exhibit a ＂chasm＂ between the early and later parts of the diffusion curve; Leaders plays a critical role in the whole process of innovation diffusion.