为何已发表的研究结果大多是错误的

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

多数发表的科研结果都是错误的,这一观点受到越来越多的关注。科研成果正确与否取决于多种因素,如:研究的把握度和偏倚,研究同一问题的小组数量,更重要的是研究所得的“真实关联”与“无关联”的比率。如果研究规模较小,效应尺度较小,被测关联的数量较大而预选量较少,设计、定义、结局和分析方式的灵活性越大,过多考虑财政和其他利益等都会减小研究成果的真实几率。对多数科研领域而言,研究成果仅仅是对主要偏倚的精确估量。

There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.