用线性方法和贝叶斯方法对奶牛受胎能力的分析研究

ANALYSIS OF NONRETURN RESULTS OF HEIFERS USING LINEAR METHODS AND BAYESIAN METHODS

利用京郊７个奶牛场１９７９～１９８９年的３１７７个实际配种记录和２６８２个产奶记录，对奶牛的情期一次受胎结果进行了线性及非线性模型分析。系统环境场、年、季效应对情期一次受胎结果有显著的影响。情期一次受胎结果育种值的ＱＢＬＵＰ估计值与贝叶斯方法估计值相比，ＱＢＬＵＰ估计值所导致的公牛排列顺序显著地不同于贝叶斯估计值的排列顺序。情期一次受胎结果的遗传力分别用ＨｅｎｄｅｒｓｏｎⅢ、ＲＥＭＬ以及最大边际后验概率密度法进行了估计，估计值分别为０．００３、０．００８和０．０１６．情期一次受胎结果与产奶量存在着拮抗关系。

The analysis was conducted using mating records of 3177 heifers and production records of 2682 heifers from 7 herds in the suburb of Beijing. Herd, year and season affected nonreturn results of heifers significantly. The sequence of ranking sires based on the breeding values of nonreturn results predicted by Bayesian method is obviously different from that based on the values predicted by QBLUP. Heritabilities of nonreturn results estimated by Henderson Ⅲ,QREML and the Maximization of Marginal Posterior Density were 0.003,0.008 and 0.016 respectively. The association of nonreturn results and production traits was antagonistic.