模糊德尔菲层次分析法及其应用

Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process and Its Applications

将传统的层次分析法、模糊评价方法与群体决策的德尔菲方法有机地结合起来,给出了一种系统分析的新方法—模糊德尔菲层次分析法(FDAHP),该方法在群体的德尔菲调查的基础上,将群体对事物的两两判断进行模糊处理,并将群体整体判断的结果作为决策环境参数,进一步根据群体决策的乐观系数最终确定出群体对事物的综合权重.用一个简单例示说明了该方法的具体执行步骤及其可行性.最后对该方法的优缺点作了简要讨论,并提出了今后相关问题的可能研究课题.

In this study, traditional analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy evaluation approach and Delphi method for group decision making arecombined organically, and a new systems analysis tool called Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process （FDAHP） is proposed. Based on the Delphi investigation, this tool fuzzily deals with the comparison judgment results of the experts, takes the overall judgment evaluation as the decision environment parameter, and determines the final decision weight by further considering the optimistic parameter of the group decision making. A simple example is given to demonstrating the executing steps and applicability of the tool. Finally, the strength and weakness of FDAHP is discussed briefly, and future possible research topics are concluded.