对紊乱科学预测法在森林害虫灾害预测预报中的思考

Thinking about the Disaster Forecasting of Forest Pest-insect by Using Confusion Science Forecasting Method

对紊乱现象的研究称为紊乱科学。紊乱科学预测是在紊乱中寻找规律和秩序,并应用数理统计原理进行数学描述,从而实现对无规则自然灾害特点的掌握,并运用于生产实践。本文拟通过引入紊乱科学的预测方法,探讨这种预测方法在森林害虫灾害管理实践中的应用,以丰富森林害虫灾害的预测预报方法和模式,加深预测预报层次,拓展预测预报空间。

Confusion science means studying the disorder phenomenon of a system. Confusion science forecasting is the method of finding the rules and order, and the mathematic description by using statistics principle, and finally to grasp the disorder＇s natural disaster characters. Confusion science forecasting is introduced in this article to approach its application in forest pest-insect disaster management. It enriches the forecasting method and model of forest pest-insect disaster management deepens the forecasting level, expands the forecasting field.