浙江省大旱发生概率及严重干旱发生年份预测

Study of the Prediction of the Probability and Trend of Severe Drought Occurrence in Zhejiang

为防御旱灾、减缓损失,开展大旱发生年的预测工作非常重要。采用统计方法和优化的GM(1,1)模型对浙江省未来干旱发生趋势进行预测,结果表明,浙江省在未来50年中,大旱年至少发生1～5次的概率分别为0.9207、0.8051、0.6217、0.409、0.2177;预测未来浙江省严重干旱年可能发生在2009年左右。从影响浙江省水资源的因子着手,提出了缓解旱灾的建议。

To prevent drought and to mitigate losses, it is very important to forecast the severe drought year. This paper tries to use statistical methods and the forecasting model of GM （1,1） to forecast the probability and trend of drought year in Zhejiang Province. It concludes that in the next 50 years, the probabilities of severe drought are 0.920 7, 0.805 1, 0.621 7, 0.409, and 0.217 7 for one to five times of occurrences. respectively. It is predicted that a severe drought in Zhejiang Province will happen likely in around 2009. Finally, some suggestions to mitigate the drought loss are presented based on the current water resouree in Zhejiang Province.