大气污染物的变化趋势及突变研究

Trends and Abruption Analysis of Air Pollutants

运用非参数Mann-Kendall法对连云港市3个定位监测点近10年来的大气SO2、NOx和TSP序列数据进行了趋势检验和突变分析。结果表明,连云港市大气SO2表现出明显的上升趋势,而TSP则表现出显著的下降趋势;NOx总体变化不大,但NOx在住宅商业功能区表现为轻微的上升趋势,而在工业功能区则有不显著的下降趋势。季节性Mann-Kendall法检验表明,除工业功能区的NOx外,SO2和NOx在夏季的增长趋势要较其他季节更为显著,而TSP在一年四季中都表现为显著的下降趋势。突变分析表明,除NOx外,大气污染物序列均出现了突变现象,且突变主要发生在2000上半年到2002上半年之间。研究结果对于认识连云港市城市大气环境质量变化过程和科学制定环保决策具有重要意义。

A non-parameter Mann-Kendall test method was used to analyze the trends and abruption of air pollutants series of SO2, NOx and TSP at three monitoring sites in Lianyungang city during the past 10 years. The results indicated that the SO2 series had a significant increasing trend, while a significant decreasing trend was detected for TSP series. The NOx series showed an uneven change with slightly increasing trend in residential, commercial area and an insignificantly decreasing trend in industrial area. According to seasonal Mann-Kendall test, there was relatively stronger increasing trend for SO2 and NOx in summer than in other seasons except for the pollutant of NOx in the industrial area, while the TSP series decreased significantly in the four seasons. The analysis of the abruption revealed that except NO, the air pollutants series had abrupt changes between early 2000 and early 2002. The results of the research would be helpful to recognize air quality change process and also be useful to make scientific environmental protection decisions for Lianyungang city.